A simulation of 100,000,000 of such best-of-seven series of A:B showed ...
And that's the code for simulating:
from collections import Counter
def sim(home, away):
i = random.randint(1,100)
if i <= 51:
w = [0,0]
for game in range(7):
if game <= 3: # fix: < ...
I wouldn't look at this as a probability question. What I'd do is (with small correction pointed out by @anodyne):
So to elaborate further, here's the basic template that you would need to fill out:
I fill out the details in this spreadsheet:
This is the "brute force" way of working it out and gets the job done with a minimum of fuss. However, the table ...