I'm playing a small-stakes game of a casino poker variant called Okay You Can Stop Holding 'Em. The rules are simple: the player and the house are both dealt two cards face down, there is a round of betting, then one community card is dealt face up on the table, followed by another round of betting. Three of a kind is the best hand, then a pair, then high card. There are no straights or flushes in this game. A single 52-card standard deck is used.
Now, the house/dealer has an enormous tell that everyone in the room is aware of. He always makes a big raise on the first betting round if he is holding exactly a pair of aces, kings or queens, and only with these hands.
So, cards are dealt. I bet, the house makes a big raise. Alarm bells go ding ding ding. I call.
The community card is a king. I have one king in my hand for a pair of kings, meaning that I lose if the house holds three kings or a pair of aces, and win if he holds a pair of queens.
I show the king to my friend sitting next to me and give him a wink. He says: "I bet you a six-pack that you have the best hand".
I love getting six-packs and hate giving them away. Should I take this bet?