Parents keep having children until they have one girl, at which point they stop; and babies are girls with probability 0.49.

If we select a child uniformly at random (from the entire population of children), what's the probability he or she has exactly one sibling?


I thought this would just be probability of BG 51/100*49/100 but it isn't.

P = P(G)P(BG| Choose G) + P(B)P(BG|choose B)


closed as off-topic by noedne, phenomist, Jaap Scherphuis, F1Krazy, Glorfindel Jun 11 '18 at 8:03

This question appears to be off-topic. The users who voted to close gave this specific reason:

  • "This question is off-topic as it appears to be a mathematics problem, as opposed to a mathematical puzzle. For more info, see "Are math-textbook-style problems on topic?" on meta." – noedne, phenomist, Jaap Scherphuis, F1Krazy, Glorfindel
If this question can be reworded to fit the rules in the help center, please edit the question.

  • $\begingroup$ This isn't a puzzle, agreed, but I don't think this is a math textbook problem either. This is a population simulation problem, and it looks to be of the particular type which tends to go haywire in wildly interesting ways depending on the exact initial parameters and included features of the simulation. Feigenbaum constants may also play a role here. Or then again, maybe not, I'm not really an expert on this. :-) $\endgroup$ – Bass Jun 11 '18 at 14:47

Browse other questions tagged or ask your own question.