I will assume that the active player does not have the option of tapping an opponent's dead hand.
With optimal play by both players the solution is that:
The game is indefinite, with no winner.
This may be shown by:
Backward induction (Ben Polack is right, this is almost always the answer!)
The current state of a Finger Game may be represented as the numbers of fingers showing on each of the four hands in some fixed order relative to the current turn, say:
$($activePlayer'sLeftHand, activePlayer'sRightHand, opponent'sLeftHand, opponent'sRightHand$)$
Thus if I am showing $(L,R) = (0,2)$ and you are showing $(L,R)=(3,1)$, then
if it is your turn to act the state would be $(3,1,0,2)$; whereas
if it is my turn to act the state would be $(0,2,3,1)$.
Optimal play by both players results from each player choosing an optimal action at each state reachable given optimal previous actions*. Thus, in the previous example with you to act, you would certainly choose $LR$ - to tap your left hand onto my right hand - and win.
But if were my turn to act what should I do?
I have three options: $split$, $RL$, or $RR$.
$RR$ would certainly be a blunder as it leads to $(3, 3, 0, 2)$ where you could play either $LR$ or $RR$ and win.
But what about $split$ and $RL$?
There are $5^{2^2}$ naive states the game could be in, but any of the form: $$(a,b,0,0)\lor(0,0,a,b)\ \forall\ a,b\in [0,4]$$ have already finished at some earlier point, leaving $(5^2-1)^2$ states
Now note that if the opponent has only one live hand showing $n\in[1,4]$ fingers then the current player to act cannot have two hands both showing $n$ fingers, since it would mean that the opponent previously tapped a dead hand.
This removes $2*4=8$ states:
$(1,1,0,1),(1,1,1,0),(2,2,0,2),(2,2,2,0),(3,3,0,3),(3,3,3,0),(4,4,0,4),(4,4,4,0)$
Also if the opponent has two live hands both showing $n\in[3,4]$ they could not have $split$ to get there and cannot have left the current player with two live hands both showing $n$ since it too means the opponent previously bought a dead hand back to life.
This removes another $2$ states:
$(3,3,3,3),(4,4,4,4)$
Furthermore if the opponent has two live hands both showing $n\in[3,4]$ the current player cannot have two live hands showing $n$ and $n-2$ since the only ways to reach such a state would be either the opponent having tapped a dead hand, or from one of the two states removed in the previous paragraph.
This removes a final $2*2=4$ states:
$(1,3,3,3),(3,1,3,3),(2,4,4,4),(4,2,4,4)$
So the total number of valid states is $(5^2-1)^2-8-2-4=562$
We can now work backwards to see if $(1,1,1,1)$ is a winning state, a losing state or neither as follows.
Start with three empty sets: $states$, $winningStates$, and $losingStates$;
Place all $562$ states into $states$;
Move states from $states$ into $winningStates$ if any action results in a win;
Repeatedly analyse $states$ twice:
Move states from $states$ into $losingStates$ if all actions lead to states in $winningStates$
move states from $states$ into $winningStates$ if any action leads to a state in $losingStates$
Stop when no state is moved in either pass.
- we could solve the problem at hand by also stopping if $(1,1,1,1)$ is moved.
If we do this we see that:
$(1,1,1,1)$ is not moved - it is not a winning or losing state given optimal play by both players.
We may also see things such as:
In the example with me to act neither $split$ nor $RL$ lead to a state in $winningStates$
- I could play either of them without putting you in a winning position.
* A full strategy for optimal play would provide the action (or set of actions) for any possible state.