# Contagious ants on a stick

Twenty-five ants are scattered on a meter stick. At the same time, they each pick a random direction (east or west) and start marching at 1cm/second. Whenever two ants meet, they turn around. When an ant reaches the end it falls off.

The ant in the middle is infected with a cold. An infected ant will spread the disease to any ant he bumps into.

On average, by the time every ant has fallen off, how many will be sick?

• When you say "scattered", are the initial positions of the ants independent and uniformly distributed? – Rand al'Thor Jul 2 '15 at 23:36
• @randal'thor The only thing you know about the initial positions is that no two ants are on top of each other. For all you know, they were chosen by a mad hatter – Mike Earnest Jul 2 '15 at 23:37
• @xnor There are 25 ants – Mike Earnest Jul 2 '15 at 23:38
• @MikeEarnest Wow, I read twenty fire ants. – xnor Jul 2 '15 at 23:39
• Fire ants having a cold? – Vajura Jul 3 '15 at 7:29

The average number of sick ants will be

$13 - \frac{6}{2^{12}}$

The infected range spreads at most as fast as an ant walks. So any ants the start moving away from the center ant cannot be infected. Any ants that start going towards the center get infected as long as an infected ant going the other way touches the center point. Usually, that's all ants that start going towards the center ant (expected $12$), since the center ant infects all such ants in front of him, and any such ant infects all such ants behind him. But, if all ants in front of the center ant are going the same way (probability $2^{-12}$), no ants behind him are infected, decreasing the expectation by $6$. Counting the $1$ infected center ant, this gives an expectation of $1+12-2^{-12}\times 6 = 13 - \frac{6}{2^{12}}$.