(This question was previously posted on Math SE, but received no answers.)
3D infected cubes puzzle with threshold $4$:
On an $n\times n\times n$ cube, some cells are infected; if a cell shares a face with $4$ infected cells, it becomes infected. What's the minimum number of initially infected cells required to infect the whole cube?
The two-dimensional, threshold $2$ version is a classic. The solution to that puzzle (often simply called the "infected squares puzzle") is $n$.
The two-dimensional, threshold $3$ version is more interesting. When $n$ is of the form $2^k-1$, the solution is $\frac{4^k-1}3=\frac13n^2+\frac23n$ with an interesting recursive pattern. When $n$ is not of that form, I believe that the solution is $\lceil\frac13n^2+\frac23n+\frac13\rceil$ for odd $n$ and $\lceil\frac13n^2+\frac23n+\frac43\rceil$ for even $n$. (I don't have a proof but I think someone else does.) In summary: $\frac13n^2+\frac23n+O(1)$.
Up a dimension, the three-dimensional, threshold $3$ version is simple again. The answer is $n^2$. In fact, the $d$-dimensional, threshold $d$ version is solved for all $d$: see here.
The logical next step, then, is the three-dimensional, threshold $4$ version. After some thinking, I have some conjectural upper bounds:
$n=1$ is $1$, trivially.
$n=2$ is $8$. (In fact, for all $n\ge2$, the $8$ vertices must start infected, as they only have three neighbors.)
$n=3$ should be $14$ (corner cells and face cells).
$n=4$ should be $33$.
$n=5$ should be $53$ (on Math SE I originally wrote $52$ but I don't think that works actually).
What more progress can be made? Are the solutions I found for $n\le5$ minimal? Is there a formula (even an asymptotic one) for general $n$?
For what it's worth, I can manage a lower bound of $\frac14n^3+\frac34n^2$. However, given the data above, this doesn't seem to be an especially close bound.
A helpful observation: Consider the $(n+1)^3$ points that are vertices of a cell. I believe that this set ("the grid points") must be connected through the infected cells: that is, the set of these grid points union the set of infected cells must be a connected set. (This observation is true of the two-dimensional, threshold 3 version as well. However, in that case, it was both a necessary and sufficient condition; in our case, this is still necessary but no longer sufficient.)