Timeline for A way to beat the system?
Current License: CC BY-SA 3.0
26 events
| when toggle format | what | by | license | comment | |
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| Sep 8, 2020 at 20:16 | vote | accept | Shuri2060 | ||
| Jun 17, 2020 at 8:22 | history | edited | CommunityBot |
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| Jul 25, 2016 at 2:22 | history | edited | f'' |
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| Apr 19, 2016 at 14:19 | comment | added | Shuri2060 | @JiK I've tried to rectify that now (if it is a problem) with the phrase "All of the teams are relatively even in skill — in a match, each team has an equally likely chance of winning.". Nevertheless, I still don't think that should be an issue... You've assumed there that "machine 1 predicts B with probability 75 %, machine 2 predicts B with probability 25 %" in order to make that contradiction although it is not given. | |
| Apr 19, 2016 at 14:10 | history | edited | Shuri2060 | CC BY-SA 3.0 |
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| Apr 19, 2016 at 13:53 | history | edited | Shuri2060 | CC BY-SA 3.0 |
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| Apr 19, 2016 at 13:04 | comment | added | Shuri2060 | @JiK, although I have tried to limit the number of 'loop-holes' in this question, I have obviously missed some, which is inevitable given that I have tried to phrase it into a story. However, I did mean that those 2 events are indeed independent (whether or not that follows from the phrasing of the question) | |
| Apr 19, 2016 at 12:17 | comment | added | JiK | Example: In game B vs C, team B has probability 70 % of winning, machine 1 predicts B with probability 75 %, machine 2 predicts B with probability 25 %, and machines 1 and 2 make their predictions independently. Then machine 1 predicts the winner correctly with probability $0.7\times 0.75+0.3 \times0.25=0.6$, and machine 2 predicts the winner correctly with probability $0.7\times0.25+0.3\times0.75=0.4$. But the probability that both machines predict correctly is $0.7\times0.75\times0.25+0.3\times0.25\times0.75=0.1875 \neq 0.6 \times 0.4$. | |
| Apr 19, 2016 at 12:16 | comment | added | JiK | "[Y]ou can assume that the way in which machines from different companies predict matches are completely independent of each other. Each prediction for a machine is independent of any of its previous predictions." This still doesn't imply that the events "Machine 1 predicts correctly" and "Machine 2 predicts correctly" are independent, which the answers seem to assume. | |
| Apr 19, 2016 at 8:57 | history | edited | Shuri2060 | CC BY-SA 3.0 |
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| Apr 18, 2016 at 21:38 | answer | added | Jake The Snake | timeline score: 14 | |
| Apr 18, 2016 at 12:36 | history | edited | Shuri2060 | CC BY-SA 3.0 |
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| Apr 18, 2016 at 12:26 | comment | added | Shuri2060 | the machine might in order to predict the outcomes (or try to), but you don't. You only have those success rates of the machines to go by. | |
| Apr 18, 2016 at 12:21 | comment | added | JiK | Should the answer assume that you have no info on the actual probability distribution of the outcome of the matches? | |
| Apr 18, 2016 at 11:51 | history | edited | Shuri2060 | CC BY-SA 3.0 |
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| Apr 18, 2016 at 11:51 | comment | added | Shuri2060 | It's a bet about who wins. I should've made that clear. And there are no such things as ties. | |
| Apr 18, 2016 at 11:50 | comment | added | Ivo | Is the outcome a binary thing? Is the bet about who wins? Or exact scores? what about ties? In other words, can two machines have different outcomes and both lose? | |
| Apr 18, 2016 at 11:43 | review | Suggested edits | |||
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| Apr 18, 2016 at 11:32 | answer | added | Kruga | timeline score: 6 | |
| Apr 18, 2016 at 11:26 | history | edited | Shuri2060 | CC BY-SA 3.0 |
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| Apr 18, 2016 at 11:08 | history | edited | Shuri2060 | CC BY-SA 3.0 |
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| Apr 18, 2016 at 11:07 | answer | added | Ivo | timeline score: -1 | |
| Apr 18, 2016 at 11:06 | history | edited | Shuri2060 | CC BY-SA 3.0 |
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| Apr 18, 2016 at 10:47 | history | edited | humn | CC BY-SA 3.0 |
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| Apr 18, 2016 at 10:22 | history | edited | Shuri2060 |
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| Apr 18, 2016 at 10:03 | history | asked | Shuri2060 | CC BY-SA 3.0 |