Timeline for A probably sunny Sunday
Current License: CC BY-SA 4.0
7 events
| when toggle format | what | by | license | comment | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2020 at 1:39 | comment | added | humn | This puzzle has brought out some fascinating points about hidden assumptions, so easy to make with probability. Conceivably, the sun might actually never come out while "sunny" keeps being forecast once or twice a week. But your last point, @Bass, is my very favorite: (my usual way of saying it:) The primary puzzle of any puzzle is to figure out what the puzzle is. | |
| Jul 30, 2020 at 12:03 | comment | added | Bass | @PaulPanzer I don't think you actually hate it, and it's perfectly ok to be critical around here :-). I don't think this puzzle can have a meaningful solution the critique points are relevant, so I usually assume that the puzzle creator intended to create a solvable puzzle instead on an unsolvable one. | |
| Jul 30, 2020 at 11:47 | comment | added | Paul Panzer | I hate to be critical but this is indeed a duplicate of @hexomino's answer in that it makes the same two highly questionable assumptions: 1) the forecasts are independent 2) the false positive and false negative rates are identical. | |
| Jul 30, 2020 at 11:47 | comment | added | Pspl | That IS the answer I was looking for. :) To bad you did't do a table to show your approach! | |
| Jul 30, 2020 at 11:46 | comment | added | hexomino | Yeah, I understand the motivation of this approach and I see a lot of people do this in real life but it always makes me a bit uneasy because it's never quite explicit what information is thrown away. | |
| Jul 30, 2020 at 11:46 | vote | accept | Pspl | ||
| Jul 30, 2020 at 11:39 | history | answered | Bass | CC BY-SA 4.0 |